Dean Remains a Serious Threat
Published 19th August, 1:05pm
Key Message:
Hurricane Dean has maintained its intensity and forward speed overnight and is still projected to pass slightly to the south of the Cayman Islands late tonight or early tomorrow. The NHC this morning noted the more favourable situation but cautioned that hurricane systems are variable and unpredictable and urged everyone to continue to monitor closely this potentially dangerous situation.
Given current forecasts, Grand Cayman can expect tropical storm force winds overnight which are expected to continue until late Monday. According to current forecasts, Cayman Brac can expect tropical storm force winds starting very early Monday, with abatement around mid-day. Little Cayman can expect high gusts a little earlier than Cayman Brac and ending a little later. Tropical storm force winds are between 39 mph and 74 mph.
Wave action on Grand Cayman is expected to affect all coastal areas, but especially along the south coast and the West Bay peninsula. Waves in these areas, if the current projections hold, can be as high as 16 to 20 ft. Rainfall is expected to be about four to six inches, with possibly much more to follow after the system passes.
Senior Meteorological Manager Fred Sambula cautioned that "there can be an explosion in intensity," and that fact, coupled with Dean's characteristic "wobbling," means that there is no room for complacency. He did say that an anticipated high pressure area over the US may assist in pushing the system more to the south of the Cayman Islands, but that it could not be predicted when that would occur.
Chairman's Comments: Cayman Islands National Hurricane Committee (NHC) Chairman Donovan Ebanks urges continued vigilance, noting that while the current track is somewhat more favorable for Cayman to avoid a direct hit, there is still time for Dean to veer further north and closer to the Islands. "We are far from being out of the woods and are still particularly vulnerable to high winds, storm surge and battering waves and we can ill afford to let down our guard," he says.
Governor's Remarks: Governor Stuart Jack, who returned home yesterday, attended this morning's meeting. At the end of the meeting, the Governor joined the chairman in thanking civil servants and representatives of non-government agencies. The Governor said: "Since I got back yesterday I have been really impressed about the work that has gone on," adding his appreciation for the efforts of all involved.
NHC subcommittee arrangements are continuing. Persons at the Pines were being transferred to a shelter this morning, with shelters opening 1 pm. Efforts to evacuate visitors continue. All persons wishing to be evacuated from Little Cayman have now been relocated, with only some 15 persons electing to remain. Cayman Airways will continue its shuttles until later afternoon, given current projections. Some 1,500 of the some 2,500 visitors remaining are still to be evacuated.
At 10 o'clock this morning (Cayman time) the centre of Hurricane Dean was located near latitude 17.0 north, longitude 75.1 west, or about 130 miles east-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica, and about 440 miles from Grand Cayman.
Dean was then moving west-northwest at 18 mph, a general motion expected to continue over the next 24 hours. The outer bands of Dean are currently moving over Jamaica and the storm's centre will be very near to that island by early this afternoon.
Maximum sustained winds were near 145 mph with higher gusts. Dean remains an extremely dangerous category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale.
At 10 am, hurricane force winds extended outward up to 60 miles from the center, and tropical storm force winds extended outward up to 205 miles.
The minimum central pressure was 926 MB.
Further announcements will follow as the situation develops.
Details of Weather System:
Latitude: 17.0 north
Longitude: 75.1 west
Proximity: 130 miles east-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica
Maximum sustained wind speed: 145 mph (230 km per hour) with higher gusts
For further information contact: Pat Ebanks